Epistemica

The right claims that there is a double standard in blaming Trump for expensive gasoline after defending Biden against similar accusations. Across social media, the right parrots this shallow line of reasoning. Republican Representative Van Orden even repeated it at an event.

People typically justify beliefs by connecting evidence to explanations, generally in the form of reasons. We have reasons for believing something, and we have varying levels of confidence and justification in our beliefs.

Presidents can influence gasoline prices. There is a dependence there, and in most cases it is reasonable to say that the president hasn’t impacted gas prices much because he hasn’t done anything to significantly influence them.

The Energy Information Administration identifies crude oil, refining, taxes, distribution, and marketing as major components of the retail price. Crude oil is the largest component. Changes in demand, inventories, refinery operations, and global supply can move prices without a new presidential decision being their principal cause.

This is clear partial causal dependence. Gasoline prices depend on numerous conditions, some influenced by presidential action and others not. A particular policy can contribute to an increase, of course. Conversely, prices can rise during a presidency without a particular presidential policy being responsible for the rise.

Confusing influence with control is an obvious equivocation. “Presidents do not primarily determine pump prices” lazily becomes “presidents cannot affect pump prices.” Treating the two as equivalent creates a false choice between complete control and complete irrelevance, and neither extreme follows from the fact that gasoline is traded through a complex market.

In its account of 2021, the EIA identified recovering gasoline demand, higher crude prices, reduced refinery capacity, and low inventories. Consumption was returning toward pre-pandemic levels and supply faced constraints.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine added another disruption in 2022 as the EIA linked rising crude prices to the invasion and already depleted global inventories. Comparing those prices with pandemic-era prices without accounting for changed demand and supply does not isolate Biden’s contribution.

When the argument stops at “gas was expensive under Biden,” it implies that Biden is responsible. But the right never has any reasons beyond Biden was president. Policy? No, they never name one.

Trump authorized strikes against Iran in February 2026 and has extended this undeclared war since. The attacks have disrupted Gulf energy production and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. There is a clear action and market consequences of such actions, rather than only the coincidence of high prices and a presidency.

The International Energy Agency’s September report documented more than 10 million barrels per day of Gulf output remaining shut in during August amid heightened security risks. The attacks have caused constrained shipping, depleted inventories, and higher crude prices.

The inference is that Trump’s military decisions contributed to higher fuel prices through the conflict’s disruption of oil markets. Given the immediate impact, the lasting impact, and the countless economists identifying the attacks on Iran and the closure of the straight as causing higher gas prices, it is quite simply to identify the strong reasons for concluding that Trump’s actions have directly increased gas prices. If he had not have attacked, the prices wouldn’t have increased.

The main distinction is between attaching a name to an outcome and explaining how that outcome occurred. “Prices rose while he was president” is accurate for both presidents. “Trump’s decision disrupted supply, contributing to higher prices” makes a specific causal claim that can be tested against the relevant evidence. The distinction seems to be consistently missed by the right.

There are no reasons for the claim that Biden caused the increase of gas prices.

The typical whataboutism response from the right is “what about eggs?”

Well, the USDA has documented how avian influenza reduced laying flocks and tightened supplies, helping drive prices upward. Before assigning the president credit or blame for egg prices, the right needs to develop a basic understanding of causal reasoning.